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There was good news on the eurozone debt crisis front last week with Germany's constitutional court giving a green light to the European Stability Mechanism and progress being made on our own bank debt. But the immediate fiscal outlook is grim and any bank debt deal will be a oneoff reduction of our public debt.
Our public deficit on the other hand the yawning and far from "oneoff" gap between income and expenditure still needs tackling, and the Independent Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) said the task at hand is greater than it first thought. Instead of 3.5bn in cuts and taxes this year and 8.6bn in the next three years, IFAC called for adjustments of 3.9bn and 11.4bn, respectively.
Now the overall size of cuts is one thing: their design and impact is quite another. On Marian Finucane's radio show last Sunday Theo Dorgan asked a question that, had he completed it, would have been an excellent one. A panel made up of a number of people who are benefitting handsomely from the public purse (Marian, lecturers Theo Dorgan and Ciaran
Mac an Bhaird and Kieran Mulvey) was, ironically, discussing the issue of public pay cuts.
There were two people from the private sector but, like four wolves and two sheep deciding what to have for dinner, the outcome was a foregone conclusion. Nonetheless Theo's question was reasonable: how, he asked, would public pay and pension cuts impact on growth?
The excellent version of that question would have been this: how will public pay and pension cuts impact on growth compared to the alternatives, and what would be the growth impact of those cuts for differing pay levels?
After threatened disability cuts, the question hardly seems to need an answer. But it does, and after IFAC's bombshell, a detailed one at that. In fact what we now need is a quantified inventory of alternative cuts and how they will impact on growth and jobs.
Damaging cuts could be classified as "austerity cuts" and only used as a last resort. Cuts that have a minimal or positive effect on growth could be classified as "growsterity". Imagine, for example, that the salary of a highly paid public servant, such as those who were in the RTE studio last Sunday, were cut by 30,000 a year.
What impact would this have on growth compared to (a) equivalent tax increases for all workers, and (b) pay cuts on low or modestly paid public workers?
With the top 5 per cent of income earners already paying 40 per cent of income taxes, there is no scope for further increases there. And with average public sector weekly earnings now 50 per cent above private sector earnings, we have a bizarrely unfair situation where those bearing the risk of job loss and with lesser or no pensions are earning significantly less than those whose salaries they fund.
Public servants like those frequently appearing on The Marian Finucane Show may say that tax increases are fair because "everyone" pays them, but this conveniently ignores the fact that whereas private sector workers pay more into the tax system than they get out, the reverse applies for those in secure state employment.
Crucially, those with less job and financial security especially those with more uncertain pension entitlements will react much more negatively to income reductions in terms of reduced spending than will secure wellpaid State employees. And those workers make up 80 per cent of the workforce.
What about different pay levels? The differentials between Irish public pay and pensions and those abroad are in fact greater at lower pay levels. Together with the large number of lowpaid workers and their large share of the public payroll cost, it is tempting to see them as low hanging fruit.
But as household budget data shows, lower paid workers spend a far higher share of their income in the domestic economy than higher paid workers. So cuts here do most damage to growth and jobs.
The basic unavoidable cost of living in Ireland is also very high so that despite pay at these levels being relatively higher than in the
EU when adjustment is made for living costs, these workers are often just getting by. Ditto for lowpaid private sector workers, of course.
Last Thursday Ibec Director General Danny McCoy called on the Government to avoid raising business costs. But unless it also tackles high basic living costs, Ibec's call for welfare and the low paid to face cuts or tax increases is definitely in the austerity and not the growsterity camp. The Institute of Public Administration has also found that the pay of top public servants, like those on The Marian Finucane Show last Sunday, is 7.7 times higher than bottom pay levels. This compares to 3.8 in Nordic countries. Trade union leaders eulogising Sweden's economic model, take note.
Last week Bernard Harbor of Impact reasonably pointed out that 40 per cent of public servants earn less than 40,000 a year, and that threshold seems a reasonable one above which a sliding scale of cuts could be applied saving up to 1bn while protecting those below it.
Finally, for an independent body, IFAC's assessment of the "stimulus package" was weak. It recommends an extra 2.8bn in spending cuts and tax hikes. And yet its reaction to the Government spending a comparable amount (2.25bn) on types of "infrastructure" that we already have in abundance was remarkably ambiguous: not only is the growth impact of this "stimulus" negligible the projects selected aren't even high in job intensity but compared to what a tax cut of equal magnitude would have done, the whole thing is a wasted opportunity.
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